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Seattle Seahawks

2-1 HC Mike Macdonald
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Washington Commanders

1-2 HC Dan Quinn
Sunday 2026-09-27 · 13:00 ET Northwest Stadium, Landover US 🌧 Rain Spread -8.5 O/U 40.5

Win Probability

SEA
58.2%
WAS
41.8%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: slight edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.

Key Insights

  • SEA defense: -0.190 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
  • WAS defense: +0.166 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
  • SEA offense: +0.052 EPA/play over its last 8 games (8th in the league)
  • QB edge to WAS: Jayden Daniels (WAS) -0.001 vs Drew Lock (SEA) -0.018 EPA/dropback

New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →

Predicted Final Score

SEA 25 18–32
–
WAS 20 13–27
Projected margin: SEA by 5 Projected total: 45

The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.

Injury Report — Week 3

SEA

Julian Love S Out Calf
Ty Okada S Out Hamstring
Brandon Pili DT Questionable Concussion

WAS

Frankie Luvu LB Out Groin
Sam Cosmi G Out Concussion
Nick Cross S Out Illness
Chig Okonkwo TE Out Hamstring
Jayden Daniels QB Out Elbow

Pulled fresh for 2026 week 3 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

SEA 31
–
WAS 33

Prediction missed by 7 pts on margin, 19 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 09:14 TD WAS (9:14) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass short middle to 1-R.White for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 0 – WAS 6
  • Q2 13:31 TD SEA (13:31) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short right to 11-J.Smith-Njigba for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 6 – WAS 7
  • Q2 06:51 TD WAS (6:51) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass short middle to 13-T.Burks for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN [99-L.Williams]. SEA 7 – WAS 13
  • Q2 00:57 FG SEA (:57) 5-J.Myers 57 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson. SEA 10 – WAS 14
  • Q2 00:03 FG WAS (:03) 19-D.Stevens 57 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way. SEA 10 – WAS 17
  • Q3 10:50 TD WAS (10:50) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass deep left to 17-T.McLaurin for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 10 – WAS 23
  • Q3 06:14 TD SEA (6:14) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short left to 81-E.Saubert to WAS 1 for 12 yards (52-S.Styles). FUMBLES (52-S.Styles), and recovers at WAS -1. TOUCHDOWN. SEA 16 – WAS 24
  • Q4 11:57 TD SEA (11:57) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short left to 11-J.Smith-Njigba for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 23 – WAS 24
  • Q4 04:39 FG WAS (4:39) 19-D.Stevens 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way. SEA 24 – WAS 27
  • Q4 04:09 TD WAS (4:09) 14-S.Darnold pass short middle intended for 88-A.Barner INTERCEPTED by 56-K.Medrano at 50. 56-K.Medrano for 50 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on WAS, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced between downs. SEA 24 – WAS 33
  • Q4 02:55 TD SEA (2:55) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short right to 10-C.Kupp for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 30 – WAS 33

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 SEA 4th & 10 at the 52
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 23%

    (12:36) 4-M.Dickson punts 52 yards to end zone, Center-41-C.Stoll, Touchback.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 WAS 4th & 4 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50%

    (11:17) 10-T.Way punts 60 yards to SEA 14, Center-69-T.Ott. 22-R.Shaheed to SEA 20 for 6 yards (18-T.Owens; 51-A.Kaho).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 SEA 4th & 2 at the 72
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.72 EP
    p(convert) 66%

    (7:37) 4-M.Dickson punts 44 yards to WAS 28, Center-41-C.Stoll, out of bounds.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 WAS 4th & 11 at the 51
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 25%

    (3:33) 10-T.Way punts 41 yards to SEA 10, Center-69-T.Ott, fair catch by 22-R.Shaheed.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 WAS 4th & 11 at the 57
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (11:29) 10-T.Way punts 46 yards to SEA 11, Center-69-T.Ott. 22-R.Shaheed to SEA 21 for 10 yards (51-A.Kaho).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 SEA 4th & 9 at the 78
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (10:28) 4-M.Dickson punts 38 yards to WAS 40, Center-41-C.Stoll, fair catch by 83-J.Lane.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 SEA 4th & 2 at the 2
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 57% p(FG) 99%

    (1:51) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass incomplete short right to 88-A.Barner (39-J.Reaves) [56-K.Medrano].

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 WAS 4th & 10 at the 98
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (1:24) 10-T.Way punts 52 yards to SEA 46, Center-69-T.Ott. 22-R.Shaheed pushed ob at WAS 41 for 13 yards (82-B.Sinnott). ** Injury Update: WAS-82-B.Sinnott has returned to the game.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 SEA 4th & 8 at the 39
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 56%

    (:57) 5-J.Myers 57 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 WAS 4th & 2 at the 39
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 57% p(FG) 56%

    (:03) 19-D.Stevens 57 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 WAS 4th & 2 at the 58
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.90 EP
    p(convert) 59%

    (13:30) 10-T.Way punts 40 yards to SEA 18, Center-69-T.Ott, fair catch by 22-R.Shaheed.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 WAS 4th & 5 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (5:11) 10-T.Way punts 54 yards to SEA 15, Center-69-T.Ott, fair catch by 22-R.Shaheed.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 SEA 4th & 9 at the 84
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (4:21) 4-M.Dickson punts 40 yards to WAS 44, Center-41-C.Stoll, fair catch by 83-J.Lane.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 WAS 4th & 14 at the 50
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 27%

    (1:22) 10-T.Way punts 50 yards to end zone, Center-69-T.Ott, Touchback.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 WAS 4th & 1 at the 39
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 56%

    (8:40) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass short left to 17-T.McLaurin to SEA 34 for 5 yards (29-J.Jobe).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 WAS 4th & 6 at the 18 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 93%

    (4:39) 19-D.Stevens 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way.

    See the full breakdown →