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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Washington Commanders 4th & 1 at the 39

Washington Commanders 24 – Seattle Seahawks 24

What Actually Happened

(8:40) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass short left to 17-T.McLaurin to SEA 34 for 5 yards (29-J.Jobe).

The Three Options

GO +1.67 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.36 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 39, worth -1.89 EP
KICK -0.26 EP
  • 56% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.60 EP
  • 44% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 48, worth -2.58 EP
PUNT -0.47 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth -0.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model