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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 9 at the 84

Seattle Seahawks 17 – Washington Commanders 24

What Actually Happened

(4:21) 4-M.Dickson punts 40 yards to WAS 44, Center-41-C.Stoll, fair catch by 83-J.Lane.

The Three Options

GO -2.50 EP
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 75, worth +0.85 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 84, worth -4.95 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (101 yards).

PUNT -2.29 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 42, worth -2.29 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model