Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Washington Commanders 4th & 5 at the 69

Washington Commanders 24 – Seattle Seahawks 17

(5:11) 10-T.Way punts 54 yards to SEA 15, Center-69-T.Ott, fair catch by 22-R.Shaheed.

The Three Options

GO -1.21 EP

45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +1.98 EP
55% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 69, worth -3.85 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model