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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 2 at the 72

Seattle Seahawks 0 – Washington Commanders 7

What Actually Happened

(7:37) 4-M.Dickson punts 44 yards to WAS 28, Center-41-C.Stoll, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.96 EP
Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +0.89 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 72, worth -4.48 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.68 EP
What Happened
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 30, worth -1.68 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.72 EP