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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Washington Commanders 4th & 2 at the 58

Washington Commanders 17 – Seattle Seahawks 10

What Actually Happened

(13:30) 10-T.Way punts 40 yards to SEA 18, Center-69-T.Ott, fair catch by 22-R.Shaheed.

The Three Options

GO +0.24 EP
Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +2.57 EP
  • 41% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 58, worth -3.15 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -0.66 EP
What Happened
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 18, worth -0.66 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.90 EP