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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Washington Commanders 4th & 4 at the 74

Washington Commanders 0 – Seattle Seahawks 0

What Actually Happened

(11:17) 10-T.Way punts 60 yards to SEA 14, Center-69-T.Ott. 22-R.Shaheed to SEA 20 for 6 yards (18-T.Owens; 51-A.Kaho).

The Three Options

GO -1.24 EP
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.73 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 74, worth -4.18 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

PUNT -1.04 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 32, worth -1.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model