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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 8 at the 39

Seattle Seahawks 7 – Washington Commanders 14

What Actually Happened

(:57) 5-J.Myers 57 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

The Three Options

GO +0.54 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +3.25 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 39, worth -1.15 EP
KICK +0.64 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.31 EP
  • 44% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 48, worth -1.44 EP
PUNT +0.15 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth +0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model