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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 2 at the 2

Seattle Seahawks 7 – Washington Commanders 14

What Actually Happened

(1:51) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass incomplete short right to 88-A.Barner (39-J.Reaves) [56-K.Medrano].

The Three Options

GO +2.90 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.46 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 2, worth -0.47 EP
KICK +1.47 EP
  • 99% chance to make a 19-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.50 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 21, worth -1.01 EP
PUNT -0.64 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.64 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model