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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 9 at the 78

Seattle Seahawks 7 – Washington Commanders 7

What Actually Happened

(10:28) 4-M.Dickson punts 38 yards to WAS 40, Center-41-C.Stoll, fair catch by 83-J.Lane.

The Three Options

GO -2.11 EP
Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +1.34 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 78, worth -4.56 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

PUNT -2.16 EP
What Happened
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 35, worth -2.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model