Back to Game
Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
?
Q1
Seattle Seahawks
4th & 10 at the 52
Seattle Seahawks 0 – Washington Commanders 0
What Actually Happened
(12:36) 4-M.Dickson punts 52 yards to end zone, Center-41-C.Stoll, Touchback.
The Three Options
GO
-1.06 EP
-
36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +2.90 EP
- 64% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 52, worth -3.33 EP
KICK
-2.30 EP
- 23% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.01 EP
- 77% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 49, worth -3.27 EP
PUNT
-1.01 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
- Washington Commanders would take over around their own 15, worth -1.01 EP
The Verdict
Chose PUNT
✓ matched the model
