Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Washington Commanders 4th & 11 at the 57

Washington Commanders 7 – Seattle Seahawks 7

(11:29) 10-T.Way punts 46 yards to SEA 11, Center-69-T.Ott. 22-R.Shaheed to SEA 21 for 10 yards (51-A.Kaho).

The Three Options

GO -1.02 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +3.15 EP
69% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 57, worth -2.91 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model