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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Washington Commanders 4th & 14 at the 50

Washington Commanders 24 – Seattle Seahawks 17

What Actually Happened

(1:22) 10-T.Way punts 50 yards to end zone, Center-69-T.Ott, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.99 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +3.61 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 50, worth -2.70 EP
KICK -1.50 EP
  • 27% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.77 EP
  • 73% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 49, worth -2.70 EP
PUNT -0.34 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 14, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model