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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Washington Commanders 4th & 2 at the 39

Washington Commanders 14 – Seattle Seahawks 10

What Actually Happened

(:03) 19-D.Stevens 57 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way.

The Three Options

GO +0.91 EP
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +1.69 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 39, worth -0.13 EP
KICK +1.49 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.96 EP
  • 44% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 48, worth -0.35 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model