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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Washington Commanders 4th & 11 at the 51

Washington Commanders 7 – Seattle Seahawks 0

What Actually Happened

(3:33) 10-T.Way punts 41 yards to SEA 10, Center-69-T.Ott, fair catch by 22-R.Shaheed.

The Three Options

GO -0.69 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.52 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 51, worth -2.55 EP
KICK -1.45 EP
  • 25% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.91 EP
  • 75% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 49, worth -2.55 EP
PUNT -0.25 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 14, worth -0.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model