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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Washington Commanders 4th & 6 at the 18

Washington Commanders 24 – Seattle Seahawks 24

What Actually Happened

(4:39) 19-D.Stevens 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way.

The Three Options

GO +1.38 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 12, worth +4.91 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 18, worth -0.60 EP
KICK +1.51 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 93% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.71 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 28, worth -1.20 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model