Value Picks — Week 7

Every game this week, ranked by how far our model's win probability strays from what the closing Vegas line implies: the biggest gaps between what we think and what the market thinks. The market wins on average (see Track Record). This is a transparency tool, not a claim we're right.

How It Works →

SF @ ATL Disagrees with the line

Model: ATL 55.8% Line: SF 63.1% 18.9-pt gap vs. the line

PIT @ NO Disagrees with the line

Model: NO 55.4% Line: PIT 57.3% 12.7-pt gap vs. the line

TB @ CAR Disagrees with the line

Model: CAR 58.1% Line: TB 54.4% 12.5-pt gap vs. the line

IND @ MIN

Model: MIN 64.8% Line: MIN 57.3% 7.5-pt gap vs. the line

NYG @ HOU

Model: HOU 62.2% Line: HOU 65.8% 3.6-pt gap vs. the line

NE @ CHI

Model: CHI 52.8% Line: CHI 54.4% 1.6-pt gap vs. the line

CIN @ BAL

Model: BAL 59.8% Line: BAL 60.2% 0.4-pt gap vs. the line