Value Picks — Week 6

Every game this week, ranked by how far our model's win probability strays from what the closing Vegas line implies: the biggest gaps between what we think and what the market thinks. The market wins on average (see Track Record). This is a transparency tool, not a claim we're right.

How It Works →

DAL @ GB Disagrees with the line

Model: GB 64.5% Line: DAL 54.4% 18.9-pt gap vs. the line

NYJ @ NE

Model: NE 89.6% Line: NE 71.1% 18.5-pt gap vs. the line

SEA @ DEN Disagrees with the line

Model: DEN 59.3% Line: SEA 57.3% 16.6-pt gap vs. the line

PIT @ TB Disagrees with the line

Model: TB 58.5% Line: PIT 57.3% 15.8-pt gap vs. the line

NO @ NYG Disagrees with the line

Model: NYG 57.9% Line: NO 54.4% 12.3-pt gap vs. the line

CAR @ PHI Disagrees with the line

Model: PHI 52.3% Line: CAR 58.8% 11.1-pt gap vs. the line

CHI @ ATL Disagrees with the line

Model: ATL 52.7% Line: CHI 54.4% 7.1-pt gap vs. the line

ARI @ LA

Model: LA 75.5% Line: LA 82.3% 6.8-pt gap vs. the line

TEN @ IND

Model: IND 74.3% Line: IND 68.5% 5.8-pt gap vs. the line

BUF @ LV

Model: BUF 70.8% Line: BUF 65.8% 5.0-pt gap vs. the line

HOU @ JAX

Model: JAX 61.1% Line: JAX 57.3% 3.8-pt gap vs. the line

WAS @ SF

Model: SF 68.0% Line: SF 71.1% 3.1-pt gap vs. the line

BAL @ CLE

Model: BAL 59.8% Line: BAL 58.8% 1.0-pt gap vs. the line

LAC @ KC

Model: KC 71.4% Line: KC 71.1% 0.3-pt gap vs. the line