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Sunday 2026-10-25 · 13:00 ET
MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford US
☀️ Clear
Spread 4.5
O/U 38.5
Win Probability
Clear
Confidence: slight edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.
Key Insights
- NYJ defense: +0.224 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
- NYJ offense: -0.229 EPA/play over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
- MIA defense: +0.057 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (23rd in the league)
- MIA on 7 more days rest than NYJ
- MIA offense: -0.018 EPA/play over its last 8 games (20th in the league)
- QB edge to MIA: Geno Smith (NYJ) -0.069 vs Malik Willis (MIA) -0.058 EPA/dropback
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Predicted Final Score
MIA
27
20–34
–
NYJ
20
13–27
Projected margin: MIA by 7
Projected total: 47
The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.
Injury Report — Week 7
MIA
No players on the report.
NYJ
No players on the report.
Pulled fresh for 2026 week 7 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Not played yet.
