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Houston Texans

1-4 HC DeMeco Ryans
@
TEN Home

Tennessee Titans

0-5 HC Robert Saleh
Sunday 2026-10-11 · 13:00 ET Nissan Stadium, Nashville US ☀️ Clear Spread -6.5 O/U 37.5

Win Probability

HOU
57.6%
TEN
42.4%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: slight edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.

Key Insights

  • HOU defense: -0.144 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (6th in the league)
  • TEN defense: +0.070 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (27th in the league)
  • Cam Ward (TEN): -0.110 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • HOU offense: -0.032 EPA/play over its last 8 games (23rd in the league)
  • TEN offense: -0.136 EPA/play over its last 8 games (29th in the league)

New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →

Predicted Final Score

HOU 25 18–32
–
TEN 20 13–27
Projected margin: HOU by 5 Projected total: 45

The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.

Injury Report — Week 5

HOU

Tank Dell WR Out Knee
M.J. Stewart S Questionable Knee
Braden Smith T Questionable Foot
Ed Ingram G Questionable Illness
Blake Fisher T Questionable Illness
Aireontae Ersery T Questionable Illness
Kayden McDonald DT Questionable Ankle

TEN

Amani Hooker S Out Concussion
Joshua Williams CB Questionable Pectoral
David Martin-Robinson TE Questionable Hamstring
Carnell Tate WR Questionable Back

Pulled fresh for 2026 week 5 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

HOU 26
–
TEN 3

Prediction missed by 18 pts on margin, 16 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 10:42 FG TEN (10:42) 6-J.Slye 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-3-T.Townsend. HOU 0 – TEN 3
  • Q1 02:27 FG HOU (2:27) 15-K.Fairbairn 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-38-K.Kroeger. HOU 3 – TEN 3
  • Q2 13:37 FG HOU (13:37) 15-K.Fairbairn 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-38-K.Kroeger. HOU 6 – TEN 3
  • Q2 06:59 FG HOU (6:59) 15-K.Fairbairn 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-38-K.Kroeger. HOU 9 – TEN 3
  • Q2 01:20 FG HOU (1:20) 15-K.Fairbairn 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-38-K.Kroeger. HOU 12 – TEN 3
  • Q3 06:43 TD HOU (6:43) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud right end for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 18 – TEN 3
  • Q4 14:17 TD HOU (14:17) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short left to 13-J.Noel for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 25 – TEN 3

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 TEN 4th & 4 at the 12
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.40 EP
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 97%

    (10:42) 6-J.Slye 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-3-T.Townsend.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 HOU 4th & 5 at the 51
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.32 EP
    p(convert) 45% p(FG) 31%

    (9:12) 38-K.Kroeger punts 38 yards to TEN 13, Center-40-A.Brinkman, downed by HOU-23-D.Ogunbowale.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 TEN 4th & 10 at the 87
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (7:43) 3-T.Townsend punts 48 yards to HOU 39, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 13-J.Noel. PENALTY on HOU-34-B.Hall, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced at HOU 39.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 HOU 4th & 13 at the 27
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 85%

    (2:27) 15-K.Fairbairn 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-38-K.Kroeger.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 HOU 4th & 2 at the 17
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.13 EP
    p(convert) 56% p(FG) 94%

    (13:37) 15-K.Fairbairn 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-38-K.Kroeger.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 HOU 4th & 6 at the 7
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.87 EP
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 98%

    (6:59) 15-K.Fairbairn 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-38-K.Kroeger.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 TEN 4th & 7 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (5:57) 3-T.Townsend punts 56 yards to HOU 21, Center-46-M.Cox. 13-J.Noel to HOU 31 for 10 yards (5-E.Ayomanor).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 HOU 4th & 8 at the 35
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 71%

    (1:20) 15-K.Fairbairn 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-38-K.Kroeger.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 TEN 4th & 9 at the 53
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 27%

    (:16) 3-T.Townsend punts 42 yards to HOU 11, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 13-J.Noel.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 TEN 4th & 15 at the 57
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25%

    (2:20) 3-T.Townsend punts 42 yards to HOU 15, Center-46-M.Cox. 13-J.Noel pushed ob at HOU 26 for 11 yards (86-K.Granson).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 TEN 4th & 20 at the 43
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 20% p(FG) 51%

    (8:57) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward sacked at TEN 43 for -14 yards (51-W.Anderson).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 TEN 4th & 19 at the 52 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.47 EP
    p(convert) 22% p(FG) 29%

    (:24) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-C.Ward sacked at TEN 35 for -13 yards (51-W.Anderson).

    See the full breakdown →