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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tennessee Titans 4th & 15 at the 57

Tennessee Titans 3 – Houston Texans 19

What Actually Happened

(2:20) 3-T.Townsend punts 42 yards to HOU 15, Center-46-M.Cox. 13-J.Noel pushed ob at HOU 26 for 11 yards (86-K.Granson).

The Three Options

GO -1.47 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +3.12 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 57, worth -3.02 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -0.59 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 17, worth -0.59 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model