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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Houston Texans 4th & 5 at the 51

Houston Texans 0 – Tennessee Titans 3

What Actually Happened

(9:12) 38-K.Kroeger punts 38 yards to TEN 13, Center-40-A.Brinkman, downed by HOU-23-D.Ogunbowale.

The Three Options

GO -0.47 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +2.71 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 51, worth -3.08 EP
KICK -1.74 EP
  • 31% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.25 EP
  • 69% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 49, worth -3.08 EP
PUNT -0.78 EP
What Happened
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 14, worth -0.78 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.32 EP