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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Houston Texans 4th & 13 at the 27

Houston Texans 0 – Tennessee Titans 3

What Actually Happened

(2:27) 15-K.Fairbairn 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-38-K.Kroeger.

The Three Options

GO +0.30 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +4.92 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 27, worth -1.45 EP
KICK +0.73 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 85% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.27 EP
  • 15% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 37, worth -2.33 EP
PUNT -0.39 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model