Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tennessee Titans 4th & 7 at the 77

Tennessee Titans 3 – Houston Texans 9

(5:57) 3-T.Townsend punts 56 yards to HOU 21, Center-46-M.Cox. 13-J.Noel to HOU 31 for 10 yards (5-E.Ayomanor).

The Three Options

GO -1.99 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.50 EP
62% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 77, worth -4.18 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model