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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 6 at the 7

Houston Texans 6 – Tennessee Titans 3

What Actually Happened

(6:59) 15-K.Fairbairn 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-38-K.Kroeger.

The Three Options

GO +2.11 EP
Model's Pick
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.37 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 7, worth -0.35 EP
KICK +1.24 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 24-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.28 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 21, worth -1.16 EP
PUNT -0.53 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.53 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.87 EP