Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tennessee Titans 4th & 10 at the 87

Tennessee Titans 3 – Houston Texans 0

What Actually Happened

(7:43) 3-T.Townsend punts 48 yards to HOU 39, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 13-J.Noel. PENALTY on HOU-34-B.Hall, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced at HOU 39.

The Three Options

GO -2.90 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 77, worth +1.14 EP
66% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 87, worth -4.99 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (104 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model