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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 2 at the 17

Houston Texans 3 – Tennessee Titans 3

What Actually Happened

(13:37) 15-K.Fairbairn 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-38-K.Kroeger.

The Three Options

GO +2.29 EP
Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +4.79 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 17, worth -0.92 EP
KICK +1.15 EP
What Happened
  • 94% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.31 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 27, worth -1.41 EP
PUNT -0.29 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.29 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.13 EP