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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tennessee Titans 4th & 20 at the 43

Tennessee Titans 3 – Houston Texans 26

What Actually Happened

(8:57) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward sacked at TEN 43 for -14 yards (51-W.Anderson).

The Three Options

GO -0.70 EP
What Happened
  • 20% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +4.43 EP
  • 80% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 43, worth -2.01 EP
KICK -0.44 EP
Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.62 EP
  • 49% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 49, worth -2.60 EP
PUNT -0.47 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 12, worth -0.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model