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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 8 at the 35

Houston Texans 9 – Tennessee Titans 3

What Actually Happened

(1:20) 15-K.Fairbairn 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-38-K.Kroeger.

The Three Options

GO +0.41 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +3.94 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 35, worth -1.52 EP
KICK +0.58 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.73 EP
  • 29% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 45, worth -2.26 EP
PUNT -0.24 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.24 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model