4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tennessee Titans 4th & 19 at the 52

Tennessee Titans 3 – Houston Texans 26

What Actually Happened

(:24) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-C.Ward sacked at TEN 35 for -13 yards (51-W.Anderson).

The Three Options

GO -0.16 EP
What Happened
  • 22% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +1.78 EP
  • 78% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 52, worth -0.70 EP
KICK +0.31 EP
Model's Pick
  • 29% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.72 EP
  • 71% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 49, worth -0.65 EP
PUNT -0.06 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 15, worth -0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.47 EP