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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tennessee Titans 4th & 9 at the 53

Tennessee Titans 3 – Houston Texans 12

What Actually Happened

(:16) 3-T.Townsend punts 42 yards to HOU 11, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 13-J.Noel.

The Three Options

GO -0.40 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +1.58 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 53, worth -1.31 EP
KICK -0.12 EP
  • 27% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.65 EP
  • 73% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 49, worth -1.13 EP
PUNT -0.06 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 15, worth -0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model