4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tennessee Titans 4th & 4 at the 12

Tennessee Titans 0 – Houston Texans 0

What Actually Happened

(10:42) 6-J.Slye 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-3-T.Townsend.

The Three Options

GO +2.35 EP
Model's Pick
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 8, worth +5.64 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 12, worth +0.21 EP
KICK +1.95 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 29-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.03 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 22, worth -0.44 EP
PUNT +0.32 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth +0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.40 EP