Win Probability
Confidence: slight edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.
Key Insights
- MIA offense: -0.018 EPA/play over its last 8 games (20th in the league)
- MIA defense: +0.057 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (23rd in the league)
- QB edge to CIN: Malik Willis (MIA) -0.059 vs Joe Burrow (CIN) +0.125 EPA/dropback
- CIN offense: +0.007 EPA/play over its last 8 games (15th in the league)
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Predicted Final Score
The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.
Injury Report — Week 5
CIN
MIA
Pulled fresh for 2026 week 5 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 4 pts on margin, 8 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 14:08 TD CIN (14:08) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short left to 88-M.Gesicki for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 6 – MIA 0
- Q1 08:05 TD MIA (8:05) 77-C.Wallace reported in as eligible. 0-O.Gordon right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 7 – MIA 6
- Q2 11:56 TD CIN (11:56) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short middle to 34-S.Perine for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN [44-C.Robinson]. CIN 13 – MIA 7
- Q2 01:00 TD CIN (1:00) (Shotgun) 69-J.Bayer reported in as eligible. 9-J.Burrow pass short right to 87-T.Hudson for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 20 – MIA 7
- Q3 05:16 FG MIA (5:16) 47-R.Patterson 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Addington, Holder-48-B.Pinion. CIN 21 – MIA 10
- Q3 00:47 TD CIN (:47) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass deep middle to 1-J.Chase for 45 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 27 – MIA 10
- Q4 07:19 TD MIA (7:19) (Shotgun) 2-M.Willis pass short right to 21-K.Coleman for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 28 – MIA 16
- Q4 02:13 FG CIN (2:13) 2-E.McPherson 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-W.Wagner, Holder-8-R.Rehkow. CIN 31 – MIA 18
- Q4 00:48 TD MIA (:48) (No Huddle) 2-M.Willis up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 31 – MIA 24
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 CIN 4th & 9 at the 52Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 36% p(FG) 28%
(5:34) 8-R.Rehkow punts 44 yards to MIA 8, Center-46-W.Wagner, fair catch by 6-M.Washington.
See the full breakdown → -
Q1 MIA 4th & 9 at the 91Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 40%
(4:40) 48-B.Pinion punts 57 yards to CIN 34, Center-46-T.Addington. 81-D.Meyers to CIN 42 for 8 yards (83-S.Traore).
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 MIA 4th & 1 at the 46Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 70% p(FG) 42%
(:09) (Shotgun) 2-M.Willis pass short left to 85-G.Dulcich to CIN 33 for 13 yards (49-B.Carter).
See the full breakdown → -
Q3 MIA 4th & 10 at the 71Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 36%
(13:14) 48-B.Pinion punts 59 yards to CIN 12, Center-46-T.Addington. 81-D.Meyers to CIN 17 for 5 yards (42-J.Woodard; 32-J.Simpson).
See the full breakdown → -
Q3 CIN 4th & 6 at the 68Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 45%
(10:51) 8-R.Rehkow punts 66 yards to MIA 2, Center-46-W.Wagner. 6-M.Washington to MIA 30 for 28 yards (47-S.Bozeman; 34-S.Perine).
See the full breakdown → -
Q3 MIA 4th & 11 at the 11Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 28% p(FG) 97%
(5:16) 47-R.Patterson 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Addington, Holder-48-B.Pinion.
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 CIN 4th & 2 at the 54 late-gameChose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.79 EPp(convert) 61%
(2:45) 8-R.Rehkow punts 45 yards to MIA 9, Center-46-W.Wagner, fair catch by 6-M.Washington.
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 CIN 4th & 8 at the 8 late-gameChose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 33% p(FG) 98%
(2:13) 2-E.McPherson 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-W.Wagner, Holder-8-R.Rehkow.
See the full breakdown →
