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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 9 at the 52

Cincinnati Bengals 7 – Miami Dolphins 7

What Actually Happened

(5:34) 8-R.Rehkow punts 44 yards to MIA 8, Center-46-W.Wagner, fair catch by 6-M.Washington.

The Three Options

GO -1.05 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +2.60 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 52, worth -3.12 EP
KICK -1.89 EP
  • 28% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.12 EP
  • 72% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 49, worth -3.05 EP
PUNT -0.96 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 15, worth -0.96 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model