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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 2 at the 54

Cincinnati Bengals 28 – Miami Dolphins 18

What Actually Happened

(2:45) 8-R.Rehkow punts 45 yards to MIA 9, Center-46-W.Wagner, fair catch by 6-M.Washington.

The Three Options

GO +0.33 EP
Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +1.86 EP
  • 39% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 54, worth -2.10 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.46 EP
What Happened
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 16, worth -0.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.79 EP