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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Miami Dolphins 4th & 1 at the 46

Miami Dolphins 7 – Cincinnati Bengals 21

What Actually Happened

(:09) (Shotgun) 2-M.Willis pass short left to 85-G.Dulcich to CIN 33 for 13 yards (49-B.Carter).

The Three Options

GO +0.67 EP
What Happened
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +1.12 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 46, worth -0.38 EP
KICK +0.91 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.93 EP
  • 58% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 49, worth -0.56 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 13, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model