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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Miami Dolphins 4th & 11 at the 11

Miami Dolphins 7 – Cincinnati Bengals 21

What Actually Happened

(5:16) 47-R.Patterson 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Addington, Holder-48-B.Pinion.

The Three Options

GO +1.67 EP
  • 28% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.77 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 11, worth +0.10 EP
KICK +1.74 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 97% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.82 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 22, worth -0.63 EP
PUNT +0.10 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth +0.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model