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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Miami Dolphins 4th & 9 at the 91

Miami Dolphins 7 – Cincinnati Bengals 7

What Actually Happened

(4:40) 48-B.Pinion punts 57 yards to CIN 34, Center-46-T.Addington. 81-D.Meyers to CIN 42 for 8 yards (83-S.Traore).

The Three Options

GO -2.64 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 82, worth +1.24 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 91, worth -5.23 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (108 yards).

PUNT -2.25 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 48, worth -2.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model