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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Miami Dolphins 4th & 10 at the 71

Miami Dolphins 7 – Cincinnati Bengals 21

What Actually Happened

(13:14) 48-B.Pinion punts 59 yards to CIN 12, Center-46-T.Addington. 81-D.Meyers to CIN 17 for 5 yards (42-J.Woodard; 32-J.Simpson).

The Three Options

GO -1.74 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 61, worth +2.34 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 71, worth -4.03 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.30 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 29, worth -1.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model