Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 6 at the 68

Cincinnati Bengals 21 – Miami Dolphins 7

(10:51) 8-R.Rehkow punts 66 yards to MIA 2, Center-46-W.Wagner. 6-M.Washington to MIA 30 for 28 yards (47-S.Bozeman; 34-S.Perine).

The Three Options

GO -1.32 EP

45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +1.93 EP
55% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 68, worth -3.96 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model