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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 8 at the 8

Cincinnati Bengals 28 – Miami Dolphins 18

What Actually Happened

(2:13) 2-E.McPherson 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-W.Wagner, Holder-8-R.Rehkow.

The Three Options

GO +1.04 EP
  • 33% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.05 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 8, worth -0.92 EP
KICK +1.04 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 98% chance to make a 25-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.10 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 21, worth -1.36 EP
PUNT -0.95 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth -0.95 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model