Win Probability
Confidence: coin flip Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.
Key Insights
- LAC offense: -0.124 EPA/play over its last 8 games (27th in the league)
- LAC defense: -0.089 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (8th in the league)
- Justin Herbert (LAC): -0.125 EPA/dropback in prior starts
- DEN defense: -0.051 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (11th in the league)
- Indoors — weather neutralised
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Predicted Final Score
The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.
Injury Report — Week 5
LAC
Pulled fresh for 2026 week 5 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 4 pts on margin, 4 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 06:57 TD DEN (6:57) 27-J.Dobbins left end for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 6 – LAC 0
- Q2 08:21 FG LAC (8:21) 11-C.Dicker 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott. DEN 7 – LAC 3
- Q2 01:52 FG DEN (1:52) 3-W.Lutz 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-16-J.Crawshaw. DEN 10 – LAC 3
- Q3 05:36 TD LAC (5:36) 10-J.Herbert pass short middle to 40-H.Rucci for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 10 – LAC 9
- Q3 01:07 TD LAC (1:07) 28-K.Vidal left tackle for 42 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 10 – LAC 16
- Q4 08:56 TD DEN (8:56) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short right to 14-C.Sutton for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 16 – LAC 17
- Q4 05:10 FG DEN (5:10) 3-W.Lutz 19 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-16-J.Crawshaw. DEN 20 – LAC 17
- Q4 01:12 FG DEN (1:12) 3-W.Lutz 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-16-J.Crawshaw. DEN 23 – LAC 17
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 DEN 4th & 3 at the 47Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.61 EPp(convert) 52% p(FG) 45%
(10:02) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 30 yards to LAC 17, Center-48-M.Fraboni, fair catch by 12-D.Davis.
See the full breakdown → -
Q1 LAC 4th & 2 at the 52Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.88 EPp(convert) 58% p(FG) 33%
(4:12) 16-J.Scott punts 37 yards to DEN 15, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 19-M.Mims.
See the full breakdown → -
Q1 DEN 4th & 12 at the 87Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 34%
(1:38) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 50 yards to LAC 37, Center-48-M.Fraboni. 12-D.Davis to LAC 38 for 1 yard (34-J.Skinner).
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 LAC 4th & 17 at the 59Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 25%
(15:00) 16-J.Scott punts 50 yards to DEN 9, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 19-M.Mims.
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 DEN 4th & 3 at the 84Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.62 EPp(convert) 57%
(13:19) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 41 yards to LAC 43, Center-48-M.Fraboni, out of bounds.
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 LAC 4th & 10 at the 24Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 28% p(FG) 90%
(8:21) 11-C.Dicker 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 DEN 4th & 1 at the 56Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 70%
(5:19) 10-B.Nix up the middle to DEN 45 for 1 yard (92-J.Eboigbe). Los Angeles Chargers challenged the first down ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #1.)
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 DEN 4th & 7 at the 16Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 34% p(FG) 95%
(1:52) 3-W.Lutz 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-16-J.Crawshaw.
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 LAC 4th & 10 at the 73Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 34%
(1:29) 16-J.Scott punts 53 yards to DEN 20, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 19-M.Mims.
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Q3 DEN 4th & 6 at the 61Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 42%
(4:14) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 58 yards to LAC 3, Center-48-M.Fraboni, out of bounds.
See the full breakdown → -
Q3 LAC 4th & 10 at the 87Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 35%
(1:26) 16-J.Scott punts 56 yards to DEN 31, Center-47-J.Harris. 19-M.Mims to DEN 40 for 9 yards (58-M.Wax).
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 DEN 4th & 6 at the 67Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 43%
(14:55) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 49 yards to LAC 18, Center-48-M.Fraboni, fair catch by 12-D.Davis.
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Q4 LAC 4th & 18 at the 90Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 27%
(13:16) 16-J.Scott punts 43 yards to DEN 47, Center-47-J.Harris. 19-M.Mims to LAC 27 for 26 yards (28-K.Vidal; 33-D.Leonard).
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Q4 DEN 4th & 7 at the 24Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 35% p(FG) 90%
(12:08) 3-W.Lutz 42 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-16-J.Crawshaw.
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Q4 LAC 4th & 1 at the 59Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 69%
(10:33) 10-J.Herbert right guard to LAC 41 for no gain (51-Q.Robinson).
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Q4 DEN 4th & 1 at the 1Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +2.07 EPp(convert) 64% p(FG) 99%
(5:10) 3-W.Lutz 19 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-16-J.Crawshaw.
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 LAC 4th & 6 at the 69 late-gameChose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 41%
(3:26) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short right intended for 13-M.Valdes-Scantling INTERCEPTED by 22-B.Jones at LAC 41. 22-B.Jones to LAC 34 for 7 yards (13-M.Valdes-Scantling).
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 DEN 4th & 7 at the 18 late-gameChose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 34% p(FG) 94%
(1:12) 3-W.Lutz 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-16-J.Crawshaw.
See the full breakdown →
