Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 6 at the 67

Denver Broncos 10 – Los Angeles Chargers 17

(14:55) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 49 yards to LAC 18, Center-48-M.Fraboni, fair catch by 12-D.Davis.

The Three Options

GO -1.23 EP

43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 61, worth +1.99 EP
57% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 67, worth -3.65 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model