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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 1 at the 1

Denver Broncos 17 – Los Angeles Chargers 17

What Actually Happened

(5:10) 3-W.Lutz 19 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-16-J.Crawshaw.

The Three Options

GO +3.92 EP
Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.83 EP
  • 36% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 1, worth +0.51 EP
KICK +1.85 EP
What Happened
  • 99% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.88 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.43 EP
PUNT +0.04 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +2.07 EP