Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 10 at the 87

Los Angeles Chargers 10 – Denver Broncos 10

(1:26) 16-J.Scott punts 56 yards to DEN 31, Center-47-J.Harris. 19-M.Mims to DEN 40 for 9 yards (58-M.Wax).

The Three Options

GO -2.98 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 77, worth +0.80 EP
65% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 87, worth -5.04 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (104 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model