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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 1 at the 59

Los Angeles Chargers 17 – Denver Broncos 10

What Actually Happened

(10:33) 10-J.Herbert right guard to LAC 41 for no gain (51-Q.Robinson).

The Three Options

GO +0.10 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +1.69 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 59, worth -3.48 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -1.31 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 18, worth -1.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model