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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 7 at the 16

Denver Broncos 7 – Los Angeles Chargers 3

What Actually Happened

(1:52) 3-W.Lutz 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-16-J.Crawshaw.

The Three Options

GO +1.31 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 9, worth +5.01 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 16, worth -0.61 EP
KICK +1.39 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.52 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 26, worth -1.24 EP
PUNT -0.37 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model