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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 10 at the 73

Los Angeles Chargers 3 – Denver Broncos 10

What Actually Happened

(1:29) 16-J.Scott punts 53 yards to DEN 20, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 19-M.Mims.

The Three Options

GO -1.96 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +1.72 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 73, worth -3.83 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -1.28 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 31, worth -1.28 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model