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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 18 at the 90

Los Angeles Chargers 17 – Denver Broncos 10

What Actually Happened

(13:16) 16-J.Scott punts 43 yards to DEN 47, Center-47-J.Harris. 19-M.Mims to LAC 27 for 26 yards (28-K.Vidal; 33-D.Leonard).

The Three Options

GO -3.58 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 72, worth +0.99 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 90, worth -5.28 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (107 yards).

PUNT -2.64 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 47, worth -2.64 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model