4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 7 at the 24

Denver Broncos 10 – Los Angeles Chargers 17

What Actually Happened

(12:08) 3-W.Lutz 42 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-16-J.Crawshaw.

The Three Options

GO +1.46 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 17, worth +4.94 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 24, worth -0.43 EP
KICK +1.81 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 90% chance to make a 41-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.14 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 34, worth -1.11 EP
PUNT +0.56 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.56 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model